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100% Natural

In my short tenure in Seoul I was the head speaking instructor at a large multi-campus prep school that was tasked with a pedagogy project (teaching teaching to teachers). While it probably won’t entirely make sense to you, here is a goofy presentation I gave one day to a group of fellow foreigners who were supposed to become effective interviewees.

I hope you are imbued with its magical powers like the woman who recently interviewed Mark Zuckerberg:

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While there are several different types of Young Earth Creationists (e.g., AiG, CMI, Discovery) many of them have attacked methods for dating the earth and cosmos at ages longer than several thousand years. Typically they demonize carbon-14 and other radioisotopic dating methods.

Using astronomy as a setting, what energy source are most of the unmanned space probes that zoom across the inner solar system powered by?

Do they use solar energy? Do they use big Energizer bunnies? Do they use dope?

Many of them, including the Voyagers and Pioneers use a technique called radioisotopic decay to power electric generators: Radioisotopic Thermoelectric Generators

In a nutshell, the heat produced from these decaying isotopes (typically Plutonium 238) is converted into electricity and stored in batteries. There are no smoke, mirrors or boogiemen involved in this process.

And as seen with these probes, the rate of decay matches up to the predicted limits and as a result some of the probes will become completely silent in the next decade.

Numbers and nincompoops

Pu-238 has a half-life of 87.7 years, a phenomenon that has been observed and tested numerous times.

Using similar testable, observable methods Carbon-14 has a half-life of 5730 years and is commonly used to date objects younger than 40,000 years.

Potassium-Argon dating has an extremely long half-life and is usually used to date minerals older than 100,000 years.

And the best part about all of these elements, if you do not believe or simply disagree with the ages found by the researchers, you can conduct your own tests.

The same thing cannot be said about supernatural phenomenon, which, by definition, are not natural and therefore not testable.

Note: again, the reason why the field of astronomy can be a powerful ally in dealing with creationists is that it cannot be blocked. Anyone can access it each evening with just a few rudimentary tools. And it happens that in this case, you can launch those tools into space and receive measurements through an odd means: by not receiving signals due to a lack of radiative mass.

See also:
How long did it take for the rings to form around Saturn?
Long distance phone calls in outer space
Admitting You Are Wrong On Easter

More than 10 years ago, back in 9th grade, I was in instigator of sorts.

I was raised under the belief that Young Earth Creationism was the way, the truth, and the light. And in biology class I was flustered that my teacher only spent time discussing the theory of evolution.

So, believing that my views were being persecuted by this “evil secularism,” I had voiced my concern to my mom who in turn discussed it with the principal. He in turn spoke with the biology teacher who was asked to carefully explain to the class that we should all keep an open, skeptical mind about all observable phenomenon.

At the time I remember giving her the evil eye and wrote down anything contentious she might say. But to her credit, she was very passionate about teaching the material and was quite accommodating to any questions.

It would take another 4 years before I came around to recognize my own religious-oriented views were short-sighted and just plain wrong and thus, the teacher is certainly one person I’d like to bump into again to discuss my own evolution.

I mention this because the creationist movement recently put together a new film by Ben Stein called Expelled. In watching the preview the audience is left with the impression that there is an evil conspiracy to root academia of religion, deism and alternate creation stories.

Its writers also suggest that there is a huge ideological battle, a methodological rift in the biological sciences — one that natural selection and traditional science is incapable of explaining. Furthermore, Stein et al suggest a super new paradigm called Intelligent Design is more than capable for explaining the natural phenomenon we see today.

While I’ll hold off judgment until I have a chance to see it myself, I would like to point out several germane issues.

First, as the NY Times and millions of blogs noted, the producer of the movie expelled biologist PZ Myers from the public screening of the film, despite the fact that PZ was in the actual movie and had legitimate tickets. Talk about ironic.

Second, as documented by NOVA and heard in the recent Kitzmiller case, intelligent design is nothing more than a repackaged name of creationism. This case allowed the ID movement to showcase its best arguments to the world yet it offers no testable framework and to paraphrase the judge: is religion not science. The 2007 PBS documentary about this issue is concise and to the point, plus it is available for free and can be viewed online: Judgement Day, Intelligent Design on Trial

Third, even the Templeton Foundation, which awards huge monetary awards to researchers to reconcile religion and science has still not received any proposals for actual ID research.

Lastly, several acquaintances refuse to believe transitional fossils exist. So, here are a couple of quick videos showing the various fossils we do know of right now. And if you still aren’t sold on dynamism, the organized church has been around 2000 years — I think it is only fare if we gave paleontologists a few more years to collect more skeletons.

After all, just imagine the early astronomers in the 17th century trying to explain the light-year.

[Note: and as sad as it is to admit, as a teenager I even emphasized that theory of evolution it was "just a theory" -- like it is merely a hunch. That is a dumb argument because the definition of theory in science is different than the way laymen use it. Gravitation is "just" a theory as is pathology and well, every scientific framework. Testability is the key ingredient that evolution has and ID does not.]

See also:
Useless body parts and non-existent designers
How long did it take for the rings to form around Saturn?
Long distance phone calls in outer space
Neo-Creationists Love Neo-Pets
The Other ID: Incompetent Design
Intelligent Falling theory

Remember that terribly awesome ’80s flick with John Cusack — Better Off Dead? Do you think the paper boy(s) in the film ended up as shareholders of Bear Stearns?

Via Deal Breaker.

I’ve done telemarketing and door-to-door sales in my past. I am glad that I have never come across this insane lady:

As my buddy Ray says, “with crazy bitches like her in mind news stories where something ‘ends in violence’ make much more sense.” For example, “A routine donut purchase ends in tragedy.”

Peter Lynch aptly suggested that the easiest and perhaps most profitable way to jump into the stock market was to “invest in what you know.”

I follow the tech industry, it’s what I know.

However, unfortunately during this period of deleveraging, major portions of the industry will be hard hit with lower demand. And as TechCrunch recently noted, start-ups and venture capital firms are being hit hard with liquidity issues: 20% of Valley Startups Can’t Get to their Cash.

And because the Fed continues to lower rates, in the long run the dollar may lose value relative to other currencies (depending on the monetary policy of other countries). Thus, anyone holding dollar-denominated assets could end up as net losers each and every day. In fact, over the past 6 weeks, the dollar has reached a new low against the Euro, the Pound and even Gold. Though decoupling could change this.

With that said, there are still profitable diversification strategies that can put you in the black over the next few years.

The following is a list of financial experts I recommend if for no other reason than the fact that they understand how monetary and fiscal policies can negatively effect the value of your assets:

Jim Rogers – he’s spent years traveling the world (see “Adventure Capitalist“), doesn’t trust the Fed devaluing the dollar and is thus bullish on commodities, oil and precious metals. See his recent interview on CNBC and the other books he has written.

Doug Casey – like Rogers he has lived and worked in dozens of countries, looking for profitable ventures to take part in. For further reading visit his archives at EscapeArtist and LewRockwell.com.

Peter Schiff – see my interview with him here. He accurately predicted the housing bubble, credit crunch, decline of the dollar, rise of gold/oil and a slew of other financial metrics. Namely because he fully understands how the Fed distorts financial markets through open-market operations (e.g., change in the interest rates). In addition, Schiff’s own investment firm also looks for global, non-dollarized ventures to invest in. You can read some of his opeds at Safe Haven.

DealBreaker – is an extremely popular financial blog that was founded and run by John Carney who happens to be a fan of free-market everything and is also critical of Fed manipulation and bank bailouts. His brother, Tim, recently wrote an interesting book on these topic as well. Also, you’ll like DB if for no other reason than it helps keep you up to speed with the lingo used in that industry.

Paul Kedrosky – in the past he has worked as a venture capitalist and financial analyst. He operates a popular blog and always has some interesting insights (I’ve either quoted him or used his info in a number of my own articles: 1 2 3). While he may not be a libertarian or free-market purist like most of the others listed above, he is contrarian in his own way (and travels too).

If you’re interested in seeing what dollar doomsayers are investing in, here is a recent thread discussing individual portfolios.

And lastly, here is a very interesting debate between Peter Schiff and Art Laffer (namesake of the Laffer Curve). It should be noted that the debate is 18 months old. Laffer certainly looks like an idiot now:

I could be completely wrong, but some friends and family members were wondering why I don’t think the PRC will swim across the straits in September.

- 2009 Deaflympics will be hosted in Taipei
- 2009 World Games will be hosted in Kaohsiung
- 2010 World’s Fair will be hosted in Shanghai
- 2010 Asian Games will be hosted in Guangzhou
- Dozens of other international expos, tournaments and festivals will take place between large cities across the Straits throughout the next several years (who can look past the 2009 International Wine Expo hosted in Taipei?)

There is an old parable attributed to Frederic Bastiat which states that when goods and services do not cross borders, armies will. One of the underlying reasons for why this observation typically holds true is that businesses and patrons can pressure the political class and military brass to be more diplomatic in negotiating with foreign states.

As Hollywood films portray each year, if voluntary cultural exchange continually takes place, even superficial friendships and relationships can illicit a strong desire to protect the life and limb of others.

Why?

Because at the end of the day, the owner of a foreign business does not want his building destroyed or employees sent off to the refugee camps.

And just as the PRC has come under scrutiny for its recent crackdown of protests in Tibet, any similar encroachment on Taiwan’s turf would amount to a huge media circus and an outcry from some of the largest, influential companies in the world (namely semiconductor firms).

And in terms of politics and sporting events, there are several examples of how these tournaments have been thrust into the spotlight. For example, in response to the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the West boycotted the 1980 Olympics hosted in Moscow. Likewise, the Soviet-bloc boycotted the 1984 hosted in Los Angeles. (Not to mention the politically charged 1936 games in Berlin or the 1974 Munich hostage crisis)

Changing their tune

Based on the results of the 2008 legislative election, the pro-independence movement were swept into minority status. This in turn has given momentum to the reunification politicos (primarily the KMT) which is believed to be a shoe in for the presidential election in 6 days.

One of the current theories that has gained traction with coworkers, expats and Taiwanese nationals I have met in the last few months here in Kaohsiung is that when the KMT comes back into power, they will ultimately create a blueprint for political reunification along the lines employed by Hong Kong and Macao.

This is ironic in part because 60 years ago Chiang Kai-shek (“Cash My Check“) and others involved with the creation of the KMT were opposed to a PRC-led China. Must be the fluoride in the water…

Shooting satellites

I have mentioned elsewhere that the PRC does not appear to have the military capability to defeat Taiwan or the US in a conventional warfare (primarily because of the analysis by professor Geoffrey Forden: 1 2 3).

However, seeing as the current neoconservative administration has bled the US economy to a standstill and overcommitted its imperial armies, the next administration may be unable to properly fund or field a rested and fully-equipped naval task force necessary to counter the PRC in the straits — which by treaty, the US government has pledged to protect. [Note: this is an odd occurrence if for nothing other than the fact that the US government spends more than $1 trillion on the military budget, or the combined total of every other military budget by a nation-state. Be sure to also read "Why the US has really gone broke" by Chalmers Johnson]

And one last twist. Remember the brouhaha back in April of 2001 between the US spy plane that crashed into the Chinese jet fighter? Guess what the American’s were trying to locate and study?

The PRC navy operates several destroyers that employ the Russian-built SS-N-22 Sunburn anti-ship missile which is capable of destroying nearly any vessel in any surface fleet. Guess where one of the ships was located relative to the spy plane? [As an aside, be sure to read Gary Brecher's finest: 1 2. More on cross-strait wargames: 1 2].

With all of this said, I still am bullish on a peaceful coexistence for the near-future and recently wrote about this in “The Vatican Still Recognizes Them, Right?” In the words of Lew Rockwell, commerce and trade can ultimately trump the state. And in 2007 alone, cross-strait trade grew 16% to more than $100 billion.

That’s a whole lot of entrepreneurs, salarymen, and stockholders to piss off.

I’ve chastised the religious-oriented “stupid design” mantra that suggests humanity is a highly tuned, perfectly designed creation.

It’s still false.

Here is a new pictorial of 13 useless body parts.

See also: Incompetent Design
Top 10 Useless Limbs (and Vestigial Organs)
Neo-Creationists Love Neo-Pets

Here is a video comparing all of the planets to various stars, including the largest ones like VV Cephei. All jokes aside, for whatever reason its author failed to include Uranus.

And here is an image showing what all the water and air on earth would like if they were sucked into spheres.

John Carmack is the programmer that brought you games like Wolfenstein, Doom and Quake. Tim Sweeney is the programmer that is behind the entire Unreal series of engines.

Recently these two guys were interviewed regarding GPUs and discussed the near-term direction that the industry is heading.

- John Carmack’s interview with PC Perspective
- Tim Sweeney’s interview with TG Daily