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I could be completely wrong, but some friends and family members were wondering why I don’t think the PRC will swim across the straits in September.

- 2009 Deaflympics will be hosted in Taipei
- 2009 World Games will be hosted in Kaohsiung
- 2010 World’s Fair will be hosted in Shanghai
- 2010 Asian Games will be hosted in Guangzhou
- Dozens of other international expos, tournaments and festivals will take place between large cities across the Straits throughout the next several years (who can look past the 2009 International Wine Expo hosted in Taipei?)

There is an old parable attributed to Frederic Bastiat which states that when goods and services do not cross borders, armies will. One of the underlying reasons for why this observation typically holds true is that businesses and patrons can pressure the political class and military brass to be more diplomatic in negotiating with foreign states.

As Hollywood films portray each year, if voluntary cultural exchange continually takes place, even superficial friendships and relationships can illicit a strong desire to protect the life and limb of others.

Why?

Because at the end of the day, the owner of a foreign business does not want his building destroyed or employees sent off to the refugee camps.

And just as the PRC has come under scrutiny for its recent crackdown of protests in Tibet, any similar encroachment on Taiwan’s turf would amount to a huge media circus and an outcry from some of the largest, influential companies in the world (namely semiconductor firms).

And in terms of politics and sporting events, there are several examples of how these tournaments have been thrust into the spotlight. For example, in response to the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the West boycotted the 1980 Olympics hosted in Moscow. Likewise, the Soviet-bloc boycotted the 1984 hosted in Los Angeles. (Not to mention the politically charged 1936 games in Berlin or the 1974 Munich hostage crisis)

Changing their tune

Based on the results of the 2008 legislative election, the pro-independence movement were swept into minority status. This in turn has given momentum to the reunification politicos (primarily the KMT) which is believed to be a shoe in for the presidential election in 6 days.

One of the current theories that has gained traction with coworkers, expats and Taiwanese nationals I have met in the last few months here in Kaohsiung is that when the KMT comes back into power, they will ultimately create a blueprint for political reunification along the lines employed by Hong Kong and Macao.

This is ironic in part because 60 years ago Chiang Kai-shek (”Cash My Check“) and others involved with the creation of the KMT were opposed to a PRC-led China. Must be the fluoride in the water…

Shooting satellites

I have mentioned elsewhere that the PRC does not appear to have the military capability to defeat Taiwan or the US in a conventional warfare (primarily because of the analysis by professor Geoffrey Forden: 1 2 3).

However, seeing as the current neoconservative administration has bled the US economy to a standstill and overcommitted its imperial armies, the next administration may be unable to properly fund or field a rested and fully-equipped naval task force necessary to counter the PRC in the straits — which by treaty, the US government has pledged to protect. [Note: this is an odd occurrence if for nothing other than the fact that the US government spends more than $1 trillion on the military budget, or the combined total of every other military budget by a nation-state. Be sure to also read "Why the US has really gone broke" by Chalmers Johnson]

And one last twist. Remember the brouhaha back in April of 2001 between the US spy plane that crashed into the Chinese jet fighter? Guess what the American’s were trying to locate and study?

The PRC navy operates several destroyers that employ the Russian-built SS-N-22 Sunburn anti-ship missile which is capable of destroying nearly any vessel in any surface fleet. Guess where one of the ships was located relative to the spy plane? [As an aside, be sure to read Gary Brecher's finest: 1 2. More on cross-strait wargames: 1 2].

With all of this said, I still am bullish on a peaceful coexistence for the near-future and recently wrote about this in “The Vatican Still Recognizes Them, Right?” In the words of Lew Rockwell, commerce and trade can ultimately trump the state. And in 2007 alone, cross-strait trade grew 16% to more than $100 billion.

That’s a whole lot of entrepreneurs, salarymen, and stockholders to piss off.