I have a new Mises piece that details how I have taken a bearish, 180 turn on China’s economy.
It originally began as an email to Robert Wenzel and was later flushed out into a proper article based on conversations I’ve had with KY Leong and Mark DeWeaver.
So with apologies to Mish (whom I called out earlier), my bullishness was incorrect. I should also point out that Lew called this stupendous bubble many months ago.
With any luck, other, more media-savvy libertarians (two in particular) will also stop trying to peddle Sino-based indices to potential clients. China is not the US in 1909.
Bubble, what bubble?
One example that I highlight in the footnotes: stocks have risen 79% in Shanghai (since January) and took a 5% nose-dive two days ago when there were rumors that policy makers will “curb inflows” — to cool off the officially recognized bubble. Who knows when it will officially peak, so buyer beware…
Other bearish articles of interest:
- Notes on a real estate trip in China (Pettis)
- RMB 15 trillion in new Chinese lending, can we turn this thing off (Pettis)
- China: Bogus Boom? (AEI)
- Beijing Borrows $8.8 Billion for Financial District (Bloomberg)
- Murky world of local finance exposes holes in China’s stimulus programme (Dragon Beat)
- The Four Cheapest Plays in Emerging Markets (Barron’s)
- China warns banks over asset bubbles (Financial Times)